广西2004-2010年流行性乙型脑炎发病的时间特征和趋势分析

Seasonal characteristics and incidence trend analysis on Japanese encephalitis in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region,2004 to 2010

目的分析广西壮族自治区(广西)流行性乙型脑炎(乙脑)发病的时间特征和趋势,为有效防治该病提供依据。方法用圆形分布法分析2004-2010年广西乙脑发病的季节性,并用趋势检验法分析乙脑发病趋势。结果 2004-2010年广西乙脑发病有明显的季节性和周期性,5月发病人数开始增多,6-7月达高峰,8月开始下降;每年乙脑发病均存在明显的高峰日(P<0.01),各年发病高峰时间均不相同或不完全相同(F=23.20,P<0.01),高峰日在6月19-30日之间,高峰期在5月16日至8月4日之间;7年间广西乙脑发病存在明显下降趋势(χ2=221.06,P<0.01)。结论广西乙脑发病季节性和周期性非常明显,在切实做好乙脑常规免疫的同时,应围绕发病高峰期采取更有效的防控措施,同时应继续采取综合性防治措施,进一步降低乙脑发病水平。

Objective To analysis the onset time and incidence trend of Japanese encephalitis （JE） in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region and to provide theoretical basis for the prevention and control measures of the disease. Methods Circle distribution was used to analyze the seasonality of the JE in the years 2004-2010. Incidence trend of JE was analyzed using trend test. Results In Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region from 2004 to 2010, the JE showed apparently seasonality and periodicity. It was revealed that the incidence began to increase in May, the incidence peak was from June to July, the incidence began to decrease in August. The incidence peak day was obvious every year （P〈0.01）. There were significant differences on the incidence peak time during 7 years （F=23.20, P〈0.01）. The peak day was from June 19 to June 30. The peak stage was from May 16 to August 4. There was evident decline in incidence during 7 years （χ2=221.06, P〈0.01）. Conclusion The seasonal and periodical characteristics of the JE was very obvious in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region in the seven years. The key points for decreasing morbidity of JE in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region must be further strengthening of routine immunization, and it is highly required that the more effective comprehensive control measures be strengthened.