中国城市化进程中城乡分项消费的联动机制——基于混合均组方法的实证检验

The Linkage Mechanism of Urban and Rural Classified Consumption in the Process of Urbanization in China: An Empirical Test based on Pooled Mean Group Estimation

本文运用2000-2009年的省际面板数据,采用PMG(混合均组估计)方法对城市化过程中农村分项消费进行了细致的计量分析,并由此得出结论:(1)城市化进程中的示范效应主要通过交通通讯支出以及医疗保健支出等渠道起作用,食品、家庭设备用品及服务、文教、娱乐用品及服务也同样存在示范效应,而居住支出以及衣着支出的城乡联动机制则不明显;(2)内部消费习惯的作用显著体现在总体消费以及各项消费支出;此外,除了食品支出之外,各项消费支出均无法拒绝生命周期特性,且流动性约束不显著。最后本文基于上述研究揭示了促进农村消费水平上升的城市化渠道的深层次含义,并且提出相关政策建议。

This paper examines the factors relating to rural consumption in China by employing the provincial panel data set from 2000 to 2009 and the method of PMG. We find that demonstration effect works by the channels of transportation, communication expenses and medical care expenditures. We also establish the internal consumption habit as one of the main variables affecting consumption. In addition, it tells that except for food expenditure, the consumer spending cannot refuse life-cycle characteristics. Lastly, after explaining the empirical findings, the paper considers the deep implications for the expansion of rural consumption demand through urbanization, and then proposes policies and further research views.