基于不完全信息动态博弈的危机管理研究

Research on Incomplete Information Dynamic Game Method for Crisis Management

危机响应过程中决策方案的形成是危机管理中至关重要的内容。由于危机事件的状态是在不断变化的,危机管理人员需要根据事件发展趋势动态地调整管理活动。本文首先建立了基于不完全信息动态博弈的危机决策模型,进而分析了危机管理中管理者与危机事件之间的动态博弈过程,以便为危机管理者应急方案的形成提供决策支持,然后通过具体的算例分析,说明了该方法的可行性和有效性,最后基于危机管理的动态决策框架提出了对策建议。

The formation of decision-making plan in crisis response process is very important to crisis management. An important characteristic and main difficulty of crisis management lies in the fact that the crisis managers must just their strategies dynamically according to the results from previous activities and the developing trend of the crisis. Firstly, this paper analyzes the dynamic game between the crisis managers and the crisis within the framework of incomplete information dynamic game model. Then, an application to crisis decision-making is investigated using the proposed model. And the ease study demonstrates the feasibility and effectiveness of the model. Finally, some on the dynamic decision-making frame are proposed based