广州市城镇用地扩展及预测分析

Analysis of the Expansion and Simulation of Urban Land Use in Guangzhou

了解城镇用地扩展相关规律,可以有效减缓建设用地对基本农田和重要生态环境用地的侵占,为未来土地科学合理地利用提供科学依据。本文对多期遥感影像数据进行解译,提取城镇用地信息,选取相关指标,运用指数分析法,对城镇用地扩展量化分析,从而探求其城镇用地扩展的相关规律。结果表明,广州市城镇用地扩展强度是有起伏的,城镇用地的重心向东北方向偏移,正南方向的城镇用地扩展稳定且较强,西南和正西方向较弱,其它方向则起伏较大。自然地理条件对城市扩展难易程度起宏观作用;经济对其有带动作用;交通设施则引导城镇用地扩展的方向;政策的作用是具有决定性的。通过总结广州市城镇用地扩展规律,选取相关因子进行广州市城镇用地未来变化预测模拟,并阐述了相关变化规律,并对未来城市用地扩展提供指导建议。

The contradiction between a shortage of land and fast urbanization is a growing problem, as is the expansion of urban space and the adjustability of land use construction. The expansion of urban land is one of the most important types of the land use change. With the expansion of urban land, high quality cultivated land and important ecology environments are converted to construction land. If we understand the regularity of urban land expansion, the occupation of basic farmland and important environments would decline. Based on RS and GIS, temporal remote sensing data were interpreted and land use information was extracted. Indexes were selected to explore expansion regularities of urban land in Guangzhou from 1990 to 2009. The results show that the expansion speed fluctuated greatly, the barycenter of Guangzhou shifted northeast, and that expansion was strong and stable in the south and weak in the west and southwest. Geographical conditions had a macro effect on the expansion and the economy drove expansion. Transport facilities have guided the direction of urban expansion but policy played a decisive role. The geography simulation system （GeoSOS） has a good effect on the forecast of urban land expansion. The parameters and selected factors are suitable for simulation and forecast; some factors were selected to simulate future change. After the simulation of urban land expansion in 2020, the relative indexes are similar to the expansion of urban land from 1990 to 2009.