基于SPA案例推理的海关风险识别研究

Research on CBR Customs Risk Identification Based on SPA

识别海关风险是实现海关风险决策支持的关键，集对分析（SPA）从系统联系的角度考虑了系统的对立和相异程度，对信息的判断更加客观，因此在研究领域知识不完备但经验丰富的环境下具有其独特的作用。本文首先探讨了案例推理结合集对分析的风险识别过程，并以此设计了风险识别的决策支持系统模型，结合集对分析中的同异反系统，运用同异反距离的方式，分析识别风险，为决策提供服务。最后本文通过案例分析，实现海关风险识别的研究。

It is the key to identify the customs risk to realize the customs risk decision support. Set Pair Analysis （SPA） can describe the differences between systems in the view of system interconnection, so that we can identify the risk information more reasonably. The paper researches on customs risk identification in lower related knowledge with richer experiences. At first, the paper discussed the process of customs risk identification with CBR and SPA, and the author designed the decision support model on risk identification with calculating the distance of same-indefinite-contrary method, and then identifies the customs risk to support the decision. At last, the author did a case study to realize the customs risk identification.