系统周界观控模型的人类活动影响定量分析

Observability-controllability model of periphery to quantitative analysis of human influence

针对人类活动对径流影响定量分析中存在的问题,利用系统周界观控模型,根据分形理论推导出模型的弹性系数,建立系统周界的具体计算式,并应用于泾河流域人类活动对径流影响的定量分析中,结果表明:人类活动对径流的影响强度在20世纪70年代以前较小,之后逐渐增强,且具有径流大时则相对较小而径流小时则相对较大的变化规律;较之传统方法,该模型所需资料较少、结果合理可靠,可为定量分析人类活动对径流的影响提供一种简便有效的方法.

In consideration of the difficulties of quantitative analysis of human influence on runoff, an observability-controllability model of periphery （OCMP） is employed in this paper. The elasticity coefficients of the model are deduced based on the fractal theory. A concrete formula for system boundary is established. A case study of quantitative analysis of human influence on runoff in the Jing River basin is performed. Results demonstrate that the human activity intensity in the watershed before 1970s is smaller, and increases afterwards. There exists a law that the intensity becomes larger when the runoff amount is smaller, and vice versa. Compared with the traditional methods, the OCMP needs few data and produces more rational and reliable results. It provides an effective tool for quantitative analysis of human influence on runoff.