农业产业复合链规模稳定性分析——以双占结构为例

The Scale Stability Analysis of the Compound Agricultural Industry Chain——A Duopoly Structure as an Example

在农业产业上下游皆为双占的复合链模型中,通过三阶段博弈分析,从知识的水平和垂直外溢角度,分四种情景对其规模稳定性进行了分析。结果表明:除了不合作模式下产业链上下游规模与来自自身的水平外溢系数变化方向相同,以及垂直合作模式下产业链上下游规模与来自自身和对方的水平外溢系数变化方向相同之外,在其他情况下,产业链上下游的规模会随着来自对方的垂直及水平外溢系数的增加和减少而进行相应的增加和减少。通过比较分析,垂直合作模式较其他三种模式的稳定性更好,提出了对于我国目前农业市场的情况,应积极推进农业产业垂直合作模式的形成,强调稳定,做强做大。

Regarding the mechanism of a duopolically structured compound agricultural industry chain,we explore the scale stability by setting it into four different contexts through three-stage game analysis from the aspect of the horizontal and vertical spillover of knowledge.The results show that,except in the non-cooperation mechanism,the scale of the upstream and downstream of industry chains vary in the same direction with the horizontal spillover coefficient of itself and,the scale of upstream and downstream of industry chains in vertical cooperation mechanism vary in the same direction with horizontal spillover coefficient of itself and its counterpart.In other cases,the scale of the industry chain would vary correspondingly in the same direction with the horizontal and vertical spillovers of their counterparts.Through comparative analysis,this paper proposes that the vertical collaborative mode should be more stable than the other three modes.It is pointed out that the government should actively push the development of the vertical collaborative mode,and emphasize the stability of agriculture according to the current situation of agriculture in China,so as to make it stronger and bigger.