北京市城区牙科人力资源配置的研究

A study on the dental manpower(DM) distribution in the city proper of Beijing

进行北京市城区牙科人力资源配置的研究 ,为在我国城市地区牙科人力资源区域规划提供依据。方法 采用分层、整群、随机抽样方法 ,抽取北京市区实际人口所有年龄组 15 17人及112所口腔医疗机构资料进行分析。利用卫生服务需要与需求法和比例类推法在 5个模式下计算对牙科人力的需要量 ,并作出预测。结果 最低需要总量为 2 34 6人～ 2 849人 ,最高需要总量 745 0人～ 90 5 2人。预测 2 0 0 5年需要量 ,1799～ 6 143人 ;2 0 10年 ,395 3～ 6 6 37人 ;牙医人口比 1∶40 14～ 1∶2 390。结论 牙科人力供需不匹配主要表现为牙科人力相对不足。现阶段主要应对牙科人力的存量进行调整 。

Objective A study was made of the DM distribution in the city proper of Beijing in order to provide basis for regional programs of DM in the urban areas of China. Methods An analysis was made of 1 517 subjects taken from all the age groups of the actual population in the city proper of Beijing and of 112 medical institutions of stomatology by stratified and clustering random sampling. Then the amount of DM needed was computed and forecasted under five modes by means of the health care need and demand and proportional analogy methods. Results The minimum and maximum total amounts needed come respectively to 2 346 ～ 2 849 and 7 450 ～ 9 052 dentists. It is forecasted that the figures will be 1 799 ～ 6 143 and 3 953 ～ 6 637 in the years of 2005 and 2010 and the ratio of dentists to the general population will be 1∶ 4 014 ～1∶ 2 390 . Conclusion The discrepancy between the demand for and supply of DM is caused chiefly by the relative shortage of DM. It is thus imperative at the present stage to readjust the stock of DM and orient augmentations towards programs with greater demands for dental services.