摘要
将REDD+引入到减缓气候变化的政策分析中,使用世界技术变化混合模型(WITCH)探讨在不同排放情景下,REDD+对于世界和中国减排成本以及CO2排放量的影响。通过SWOT分析,识别出中国实施REDD+的优势和劣势以及面临的机遇与挑战,并讨论中国应对REDD+的气候变化政策选择。研究表明,REDD+会促使中国可以更多地进口碳排放许可证替代国内工业减排,从而有效降低中国的减排成本。中国实施REDD+的优势大于劣势,机遇多于挑战,因此中国应积极参与到REDD+的制定和谈判中,提前布局以从中获取最大收益。
The REDD ＋ mechanism is introduced into the policy analysis for mitigation climate change. In different emission scenarios, the impacts on China＇s abatement cost and emissions of CO2 which are caused by REDD ＋ mechanism have been analyzed by using WITCH （ World Induced Technical Change Hybrid） Model. The strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and challenges of REDD ＋ mechanism in China are identified by SWOT analysis. The policy options of China＇s response to climate change are discussed. Research findings indicate REDD ＋ mechanism will encourage China to import more carbon emission permits instead of reducing emissions from domestic industries, thus effectively reducing the emission cost of China. The strengths and opportunities of implementation of REDD ＋ mechanism in China are more than weaknesses and challenges. Therefore, China should actively participate in the designs and negotiations of REDD ＋ mechanism to make early preparations and obtain maximum benefits.
出处
《中国科技论坛》
CSSCI
北大核心
2012年第11期141-148,共8页
Forum on Science and Technology in China
基金
江苏高校优势学科建设工程
南京信息工程大学科研基金资助(SK20110124)
