基于最小二乘与ARMA组合模型的海平面异常预报

SEA LEVEL ANOMALY FORECASTING BASED ON COMBINED MODEL OF LEAST SQUARE AND ARMA

利用最小二乘模型对海平面异常信号中的周期项及线性趋势项进行拟合预报,残差部分则采用ARMA模型预报。对北太平洋试验区域的预报结果表明,1年的预报精度为0.29 cm,两年的预报精度为0.63 cm,说明该模型能够以亚厘米级精度有效进行短期SLA预报。

A method based on the least square（LS） model combined with the ARMA model is used to predict the sea level anomaly（SLA）,where the periodic terms and linear trends are fitted using LS while the stochastic terms are predicted with ARMA model.A test was carried out in the North Pacific Ocean by using satellite altimetry data and the results show that the accuracy for 1 year and 2 years＇ prediction are 0.29 cm and 0.63 cm,respectively.It indicates that this combined model can be used for the short term SLA prediction in sub-centimeter accuracy.