顾及模型误差补偿的GM(1,1)变形预测建模

OPTIMAL METHOD FOR GM(1,1) MODELING FOR PREDICTION OF DEFORMATION TAKING COMPENSATION FOR MODEL ERRORS INTO ACOUNT

分析GM(1,1)建模过程中模型误差的主要来源,建立顾及模型误差补偿的GM(1,1)模型,并通过实例将模型误差补偿后的GM(1,1)模型与传统GM(1,1)、PGM(1,1)和时变GM(1,1)模型的预测结果进行比较,结果表明,模型误差补偿后的GM(1,1)模型预测精度最高。

By analyzing the main error source in the GM（1,1） modeling,the GM（1,1） model taking the compensation for model error was proposed and then,through an example,compared the model（with compensation for error） with the results predicted with conventional models GM（1,1）,PGM（1,1） and time-varying GM（1,1）.The results show that the prediction accuracy with the model GM（1,1） of error compensation is the highest.