利率、汇率与中国经常项目差额波动研究——基于跨时最优现值模型

A Study on the Interest Rate,Exchange Rate and Fluctuations of Chinese Current Account Balance——Based on Intertemporal-optimized Present Value Model

通过对经常项目的跨时最优现值模型进行扩展,将时变性利率、汇率包含进了扩展模型,并运用规范的检验方法对模型进行了实证检验,以验证中国的经常项目差额波动是否符合跨时最优现值模型的预测。检验结果表明,扩展的跨时最优现值模型在拟合中国经常项目的动态路径时有较强的功效。利率、汇率的变动使得居民家庭形成了一定的预期,进而形成了其跨时消费偏好,导致了中国经常项目的差额波动,其中汇率变动起了主要作用。因此,调节中国经常项目的持续顺差需要增强人民币汇率弹性,引导市场形成合理预期,还要加强国际间的汇率和利率政策协调。

This paper extends the intertemporal-optimized present-value model using time-varying interest rate and time-varying exchange rate,and uses standardized testing methods to conduct empirical test,in order to verify whether Chinese current account balance fluctuations is consistent with the prediction of intertemporal-optimized present value model.The test results show that the efficacy of the intertemporal-optimized present value model fitting the dynamic path of Chinese current account has a strong effect.The changes of Interest rates and exchange rate make households form certain expectations and form their intertemporal consumption preferences,resulting in the fluctuations of Chinese current account balance,which exchange rate changes played a major role.Therefore,the adjustment of fluctuations of Chinese current account balance need to enhance the flexibility of RMB exchange rate,guide the market to form reasonable expectations,to strengthen coordination of international exchange rate and interest rate policies.