四川境内成昆铁路泥石流预测预报专家系统

EXPERT SYSTEM OF PREESTIMATE AND FORECAST OF DEBRIS FLOWS ALONG CHENGDU-KUNMING RAILWAY IN SICHUAN PROVINCE

四川境内成昆铁路泥石流预测预报专家系统,是根据该线泥石流数据库中有关泥石流沟谷的属性,基于产生式规则,按照一定的推理网络自动进行泥石流预测预报的。整个系统采用模块化程序设计,包括数据库、知识库、推理机、知识获取、解释、人机接口6个模块,使用Turbo PROLOG语言,在IBM-PC/XT 286机上实现。

The expert system of debris flow preestimate and forecast along Chengdu- Kunming Railway in Sichuan Province uses the constitution method of the practical expert system and made preestimate and forecast for debris flows along Chengdu-Kunming Railway in Sichuan based on the experiament of debris flow expert.According to the preestimate and forecast model of debris flows in this area,the system completed on microcomputer of IBM-PC/XT 286 in Turbo PROLOG language by the modelation program technique in 6 modules of data-base, knowledge base, inference computer, knowledge retrieral, interpolation and entry.41 informations of 367 gullies in the data-base of debris flow,as a systematic data-base, have been processed into 11 informations. Knowledge base is a list consisting of revative knowledges and attribute objects. The knowledges may be presented on LHS→RHS. LHS presents regular premise conditions; RHS presents regular conditions. The logical computer is the collective of inference rules. It looks for matching object with provided informations. This system can make predict of the occurrence of debris flow based on inference both positive and negative. The inference patterns include consulting and impliciting.The forecast may be divided into three processes: beginning, forecasting and after processing.