基于Kira指标的云南松气候适宜性分析

Analyzing Climate Suitability of Pinus yunnanensis Based on Kira's Indices

基于云南省气象数据与云南松空间分布数据,结合国际上应用较广的Kira指标,通过统计方法和GIS软件,分析了云南省气候资源时空变化特征以及云南松未来适生区域的变化。结果表明:云南松的温暖指数为32.1～204.3℃·月,最适范围为86.1～160.0℃·月,平均值122.9℃·月;云南省WI年际变化曲线呈明显升高,从1970年的121.30℃·月升至2002年的133.57℃·月;HI年际变化曲线呈下降趋势,从1970年的10.97 mm·(℃·月)-1降至2002年的8.92 mm·(℃·月)-1,WI波动较HI显著,最高值出现在1998年,为136.63℃·月,最低值为1976年的117.13℃·月,但均在云南松最适分布范围内。基于Kira温暖指数预测:未来气候变化下,云南松分布仍集中于滇中地区,但分布面积发生了较大变化,云南松分布北界移动不明显,但云南松总体适生面积将逐步减少。

Based on the meteorological data of Yunnan Province and the space distribution data of Pinus yunnanensis,with Kira＇s indices,and by using statistical methods and GIS software,the spatiotemporal change characteristics of climate resources and the suitable area＇s changes of P.yunnanensis were analyzed.The results indicated that the mean value of P.Yunnanensis＇ warmth index was 122.9 ℃·month,ranging from 32.1-204.3 ℃·month,and it＇s optimum range was 86.1-160.0 ℃·month.The interannual variation curve of Warmth Index（WI） in Yunnan Province was significantly elevated,from 121.30 ℃·month（1970） to 133.57 ℃·month（2002）,and the interannual variation curve of Humidity Index（HI） followed a downward trend,from 10.97 mm·（℃·month）-1（1970） to 8.92 mm·（℃·month）-1（2002）.The WI fluctuation was more significant than HI fluctuation.The maximum value occurred during 1998（136.63 ℃·month）,and the minimum value for the 1976（117.13 ℃·month）.However,both the maximum and minimum values belong to the optimal range of P.yunnanensis.Under the condition of climate changing in the future,P.yunnanensis will be centralized in areas of middle Yunnan,but the distribution area will change.The north distributing limitation will not move obviously but the south boundary will atrophy obviously,and the suitable area will decrease stage by stage.