地面慢速移动目标轨迹预测方法

A Trace Forecasting Method for Ground Slow Maneuvering Target

在预测期较长的情况下,不确定因素将增加,对地面慢速移动目标轨迹预测的结果可能偏差较大。为了检验和提高预测结果的准确度,克服单一预测模型的不足,提出了一种改进灰色预测模型结合轨迹点转移概率的综合预测方法。通过引入缓变因子,并对原始数据进行自然指数变换,改进的灰色GM(1,1)模型能够控制其发展系数,提高灰色预测模型本身的精度。为了进一步检验预测结果,利用当前统计模型和分段整合的思想,并采用目标加速度截断正态概率密度模型,建立了轨迹点转移概率分布模型。仿真结果表明,该方法能够达到提高和保证预测精度的目的。

Due to the longer predicting interval and the increasing uncertainty ingredient, predicting result deviation of the target trace may be great. For verifying and improving the forecast accuracy, and overcoming single model deficiency, the integrated method is proposed based on improved grey forecasting model and target transition probability function. By introducing the slowing factor and the exponential transformation of original data, the improved model can control the developing coefficients and increase model precision. After target acceleration truncation gauss probability model is analyzed, target transition probability distributing model is built based on the idea of current statistic model and segment ＆ integration. Simulation result indicates the method can enhance and guarantee forecasting precision.