股票价格心理关口实证研究

Empirical Research on Psychological Barrier of Stock Price

通过分析沪深300指数股票在上海证券交易所上市的202只股票2007年7月3日到2008年12月25日的68 034条交易记录,采用分析M值分布的方法,研究了股票价格心理关口的现象,从而对投资者的理性程度进行分析。从M值分布的绘图结果看,股票价格在个位数为0和个位数为0处附近产生异常,表明心理关口可能存在。为了排除第一数字定律的影响,又使用回归的方法对M值的分布进行了系统的检验。回归结果显示股票价格在个位数为0处形成了心理关口。

The existence of psychological barrier in stQck price is intends to determine by studying the distribu-tion of M-value of 68 304 stock price records of Shanghai-shenzhen 300 stock from July. 3：2007 to Dec. 25：2008, and thus leads to conclusion regarding if investors are rational. M-value demonstrates abnormal distribution when its unit digit or tenths-unit digit is zero. To exclude the effect of the First Digit Law, regression analysis to examine M-value distribution more closely is used. The result of regression analysis reveals that psychological barrier exists when stock price＇s unit digit is zero.