摘要
根据实际调查问卷,将电力商业用户按照用电特性分为5类,分析了各类商业用户在不同电价水平下,用电高峰段、用电平段、用电低谷段3个时段的负荷响应程度,利用概率分布函数预测了各类用户的负荷调整可能值,并应用马尔科夫链建立了不同时段负荷响应预测模型,对"十二五"期间商业用户的负荷调整响应度进行了模拟,并通过算例分析验证了其实际意义,挖掘了各类商业用户在不同时段的负荷调整潜力,为区域商业用户智能配电及管理提供了决策支持依据。
By questionnaires,the commercial power consumers are classified into 5 types according to the electricity consumption features,and the load response degree from every commercial user during peak,average and low valley phases under different tariff levels are analyzed.The probable load regulation value of users is predicted by using of probability distribution function,and the load response prediction model under different phase is built based on Markov chain.In addition,the load regulation response degree of commercial users during 12th Five-year is simulated,and its applicability is verified by examples.At the same time,the load regulation potential of commercial users under different phase is found,which provides decision-making base for smart power distribution and management of regional commercial users.
出处
《现代电力》
北大核心
2012年第5期77-80,共4页
Modern Electric Power
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(71273089)
北京市自然科学基金资助项目(9122022)
关键词
智能电网
用电行为
商业用户响应
马尔科夫链
问卷调查
smart grid
consumption behavior
commercial users＇ response
Markov chain
questionnaires
