基于灰色预测模型的高等教育规模预测

Forecast of Higher Education Scale Based on Grey Forecasting Model

文章介绍了灰色预测模型(GM(1,1)模型)的建模过程,并以高校在校生数代表高等教育规模,运用GM(1,1)模型对我国高等教育规模进行预测,通过残差检验和后验差检验这两种方法证明了GM(1,1)模型的有效性,最后利用GM(1,1)模型预测了我国2011-2015年的高等教育规模。结果显示,我国高等教育规模在未来几年将呈现逐年上升的趋势。

The paper introduces the modeling process of Grey forecasting model（GM（1,1）） first.Then,GM（1,1） model is used to forecast the higher education scale,in which the higher education scale is measured by the number of enrollment students of colleges and universities.Next,the effectiveness of GM（1,1） model is proved by the residual and posteriori error test.Finally,the higher education scales from 2011 to 2015 in China are forecasted using GM（1,1） model.The results indicate the higher education scales in China will generally increase in next few years.