1988年澜沧—耿马大震序列剪切应力值随时间的变化与强余震预报

SHEAR STRESS VARIATION WITH TIME AND STRONGAFTERSHOCK PREDICTION OF THE 1988 LANCANG-GENGMA EARTHQUAKE SEQUENCE

1988年11月6日澜沧——耿马大震后,在地震现场,利用澜沧地震台记录的2.5≤M_L≤4.9级地震,以清晰的直达P波初动半周期及时估算剪切应力强度,追踪它们随时间的调整变化,并直接用于对后续强余震的预测和序列发展趋势估计。

After the great Lancang-Gengma earthquake, all the 2.5≤Ml≤4.9 events recorded at Lancang Station in situ have been processed in time and the clear half periods of direct P wave onset have been used to estimate the shear stress strength and to trace their adjusting variation with time. Finally, they have been directly used to predict the strong aftershock and to evaluate the developing trend of the sequence.