服务业的结构和“成本病”的克服——Baumol模型的扩展和实证

The Structure of Service Industry and the Treatment for Cost Disease:Extension and Empirical Study of Baumol Model

文章从生产过程是否可标准化的角度出发,将服务业划分为可标准化服务业和不可标准化服务业两类。根据两类服务业的异质性,文章对Baumol(1967)模型进行了扩展,将服务业的结构问题引入模型,分析了可标准化服务业、不可标准化服务业和工业三者之间的结构对生产率增长的影响。文章还采用1978-2010年中国服务业分行业数据对扩展后的模型进行了实证。结果表明,不可标准化服务业符合Baumol模型的假设,其过度增长会导致"成本病";可标准化服务业不符合Baumol模型的假设,其增长会保证整体经济生产率的可持续增长。因此,服务业规划应重视服务业结构及其异质性对整体经济的影响。

From the angle of the standardization of production process, this paper classifies the service industry under two types, namely standard- ized and non-standardized service industry. After extending Baumol model raised in 1967 according to the heterogeneity of the two types of service in- dustry, it introduces the structure of service industry into the model and ana- lyzes the effects of the structure among standardized service industry, non-standardized service industry and the industry on the rise in productivi- ty. It makes an empirical study of the extended Baumol model on the basis of the service sub-industries data in China from 1978 to 2010. The results state that the non-standardized service industry meets the hypothesis of Baumol model,that is to say its excess growth would lead to cost disease, but the standardized service industry does not comply with the hypothesis of Baumol model, namely its growth would guarantee the sustainable increase in eco- nomic productivity. Therefore, service industry planning should put emphasis on the effects of the structure of service industry and its heterogeneity on the whole economy.