国际资本流动和国际贸易对国内物价的冲击效应——基于不同汇率机制和宏观经济环境的研究

The Knock-on Effects of International Capital Flow and International Trade on Domestic Prices:Research Based on Different Exchange Rate Mechanisms and Macroeconomic Environment

在开放经济条件下,国际资本流动和国际贸易与国内物价的联系越来越密切。文章根据不同的汇率机制和宏观经济环境,分四个阶段研究了1994—2011年国际资本流动和国际贸易对国内物价的冲击效应。研究发现,在不同的汇率机制和宏观经济环境下,国际资本流动和国际贸易对国内物价的冲击程度不同。整体上,国际资本流动对物价的冲击相对于国际贸易呈现增大的趋势。因此,在制定宏观经济政策时,除了要考虑国际资本流动和国际贸易对物价的影响外,还要考虑当时的汇率机制和宏观经济环境。

Under the condition of open economy, the relationship be- tween international capital flow and international trade is more and more closely related to domestic prices. Based on different exchange rate mecha- nisms and macroeconomic environment, this paper studies the knock-on effects of international capital flow and international trade on domestic prices from 1994 to 2011 which is divided into four stages. It indicates that under different exchange rate mechanisms and macroeconomic environment, inter- national capital flow and international trade have different knock-on effects on domestic prices. On the whole, in comparison to international trade, the knock-on effect of international capital flow on domestic prices has an in- creasing trend. Therefore, when formulating a macroeconomic policy, gov- ernments should take into account not only the effects of international capital flow and international trade on domestic prices but also then exchange rate mechanisms and macroeconomic environment.