市场潜力、出口需求与新成立外资企业区位分布

Market Potential,Export Demands and New Established Foreign Firm's Location

本文首先构建了一个考虑多种影响因素的外资企业区位选择的新经济地理理论框架,然后利用1999～2008年全国286个城市的面板数据考察了市场潜力、出口需求对新成立外资企业区位分布的影响。为了纠正泊松模型条件方差过度分散问题,本文使用了面板负二项回归方法进行估计,结果显示,城市的市场潜力和出口需求是外资企业投资区位的决定因素,同时,采用分时段、分区域方法以及2004年经济普查数据进行重新估计,结果都证实了上述发现是稳健的。此外,城市人力资本水平和市场化程度对新成立外资企业区位分布有显著的正向影响,而城市的职工工资、自然资源禀赋、基础设施、工业税负等因素则不会对新成立外资企业区位分布构成实质影响。文章的发现意味着新经济地理理论能较好解释新成立外资企业在华投资区位分布。

Basing on a theory framework developed from the New Economic Geography, this paper examines the determi- nants of foreign firms＇ location in China. Using 1999--2008 panel data of 286 Chinese cities＇ and applying panel Negative Bi- nomial Regression to address the ＂overdispersion＂ problem, the result shows that the domestic market potential and export de- mands are the key determinants of new established foreign firms＇ location in China. By dividing the data set into different time period and different regions, and adopting economic census data to re-estimate, we prove that the result is robust. We also found that cities with higher level of human capital or higher degree of market-oriented attract more foreign firms. However, natural resource endowments, city infrastructure, industrial tax rates and wage have no significant effect. The implication of this paper is that the new established foreign firms＇ location in China can be well explained by the New Economic Geography theory.