农业自然灾害与粮食价格波动——基于中国1978—2010年间的数据

Agricultural Natural Disasters and Food Price Volatility:Based on the Data of China during 1978-2010 Years

因为研究农业自然灾害与粮食价格波动的相关关系对稳定粮食价格、保障粮食安全具有积极作用,故以1978—2010年反映粮食价格以及农业自然灾害的时间序列数据为依据,采用互谱分析方法分析农业自然灾害与粮食价格波动之间的相关关系,结果表明:受灾率、成灾率和灾害强度波动与粮食价格波动存在相关关系,在短周期波动中受灾率波动与粮食价格波动相关性最大;在中长期波动周期中成灾率与粮食价格波动相关性最紧密。

Research on the correlation of agricultural natural disasters and food price volatility play a positive role on stabilizing grain price and ensuring food safety.The correlation of agricultural natural disasters and food price volatility is analyzed through cross-spectrum method based on the data of China during 1978-2010 years.The results show that the correlation of agricultural natural disasters and food price exist;the rate of covered areas has remarkable correlation with food price volatility during short cycles;the rate of affected areas has remarkable correlation with food price volatility during med-long cycles.