经济景气区域中农村居民消费不对称特征研究

Study on the Asymmetric Character of Rural Household Consumption in Business Cycle Regime

在不同经济景气区域中(繁荣区域与疲软区域)农村居民消费特征可能不同,因此构建具有经济景气区域特征的内生性门限CM模型。模型估计的经济景气区域与农村居民所处的经济景气实际状况非常吻合。CM模型门限效应的存在,说明农村居民消费敏感性在经济景气区域中是不对称的,其消费具有较强的损失规避特征,支持前景理论假设;在经济景气繁荣区域内,名义利率的提高导致农村居民储蓄倾向提高,而抑制了其消费倾向,使得实际利率对农村居民消费的抑制作用在经济繁荣区域内比在经济疲软区域内要大。

The rural residents＇ consumption characteristics may be different in different regimes of business cycle（the prosperity regime and the depression regime）.Base on this,the paper establishes a threshold CM model which reflects the characteristics of business cycle.Estimated the business cycle regions from the model are consistent with the actual business cycle state in which the rural residents stayed.The result shows that there exists significant threshold effect in CM model,indicating that there is an asymmetric sensitivity in different business cycles;this also shows that the consumption of rural residents has a strong loss aversion characteristic,supporting the hypothesis of prospect theory.During the prosperity regime of business cycles,nominal interest rate increase will only lead to increase the propensity of rural residents＇ saving,and inhibit their propensity to consume,making the effective on the inhibition of the rural residents＇ consumption in the prosperity regime lager than in the depression regime.