精细化气象要素温度指导预报在山西区域的误差及特征

Characteristics of Errors of Refined Guidance Temperature Prediction in Shanxi

利用2009—2010年山西区域108站共730天精细化气象要素温度指导预报资料,对比日最高气温和日最低气温的预报误差,采用常规统计、EOF分析等方法研究指导预报误差的时间和空间分布特征,结果表明:山西区域的温度预报准确率比较稳定,但有明显的季节特点,夏季最高,秋季次之、冬春季相对偏低,日最高气温年平均正、负误差略高于日最低气温误差,春季大,冬秋次之,夏季小;正负误差值的空间分布与山西地形有一定的联系,日最高气温和日最低气温误差的分布特点具有明显的全区一致性。

According the refined guidance temperature forecast data in 730 days from 2009 to 2010 in Shanxin, compared to the daily maximum and minimum temperature, using conventional statistical and EOF analysis methods, the temporal-spatial distribution of the guidance forecast errors is studied. The results show： the temperature prediction accuracy in Shanxi is relatively stable, but there is obvious seasonal variation, the highest in summer, the second in autumn, and relatively low in winter and spring; both average positive and negative errors of daily maximum temperature are slightly higher than those of daily minimum temperature, the largest in spring, then in autumn and winter, the smallest in summer; the spatial distribution of errors is relative to the topography in Shanxi, and obvious consistency is found in the error distribution o{ daily maximum temperature and minimum temper＇ature over the whole Shanxi.