中稻白叶枯病流行程度分段预报方法研究

The Stage Forecast for Epidemic of Rice Bacterial Leaf Blight

选取与中稻白叶枯病 ( Xanthomonasoryzaepv.oryzae Dowson)流行程度关系密切的气候因子(平均相对湿度、中雨日数、雨日数 )作为预测因子 ,进行中稻白叶枯病分段预报方法研究 ,应用逐步判别分析法、逐步回归分析法 ,建立中稻白叶枯病中、短期预报数学模型 ,回报历史符合率 :中期预报模型为 93 .8%、短期预报模型达 1 0 0 %,对 1 996～ 1 998年

Four meteorological factors,which are closely related to epidemic of bacterial leaf blight of middle rice,were selected for stage forecast of this disease,and the middle term and short term forecast model were established by means of progressive discrimination analyses and progressive regression analyses.The results showed that the according percentage with nistorical data were 93 8% (middle term forecast model) and 100% (short term forecast model) and the forecasting accuracy was also satisfying from 1996 to 1998.