中非贸易问题研究——基于引力模型的分析

An Analysis of China-Africa Trade Development from the Perspective of Gravity Model

利用中国与155个国家1995年～2009年间的进口数据,以引力模型分析中非贸易特征。在模型中引入两个与中国对外贸易紧密相关的制度变量——是否承认"一个中国"和是否承认中国市场经济地位来考察政治因素对于中非贸易的影响,并将非洲国家分为资源丰富国、沿海资源贫乏国和内陆资源贫乏国三类进行研究。结果表明:中国对于资源丰富国具有显著的过度进口倾向,而对于沿海资源贫乏国和内陆资源贫乏国存在不同程度的进口不足。这一结论可以为中国政府旨在改进中非贸易而提出的"扩大中非贸易规模并优化贸易结构"提供政策依据。

Using the data of China＇s imports from 155 countries over the years of 1995 -2009, the paper explores the characteristics of China-Africa trade from the perspective of gravity model, and tests the effect of new political augmentations on China-Africa trade, including the recognition of China as a market economy and One-China principle. It makes a classification of African economies into three types from economic geog- raphy, such as resource-rich country, coastal resource-poor country and landlocked resource-poor country. It finds that China tends to over-trade with the resource-rich country, but under-trade with the coastal resource- poor country and the landlocked resource-poor country, which provides some policy evidences for China＇s government to expand China-Africa trade scale and optimize the trade composition.