突变评价法的改进及其在节水型社会评价中的应用

Improvement of catastrophe theory evaluation method and its application to water-saving society evaluation

针对常规突变评价法评价值过高、最优与最劣方案差距过小的缺点,提出了构建突变综合评价值与底层指标隶属度值之间拟合函数关系式的改进方法,通过该拟合函数,可将综合评价值转换为具有明显"优、劣"涵义的底层指标隶属度值,并对拟合函数的形式和参数进行了分析讨论。通过对已有评价成果的改进计算,验证了所提改进方法的有效性及合理性,在此基础上,提出了改进突变评价法的计算步骤。以天津市为例,将改进突变评价法应用于天津市节水型社会评价研究中,计算结果表明,改进突变法的评价结果数值分布更直观、更合理,能够较好地克服常规突变评价法的缺点,与近年来天津市节水型社会建设开展的实际情况吻合很好,进一步验证了改进方法的合理性。

This paper discusses the shortcomings of catastrophe theory evaluation method and presents an improvement over it by using a fitting function of base indicator membership degree versus comprehensive evaluation value. With this improved method, comprehensive evaluation value can be transformed to another value of more obvious meaning of good or bad. Its structure and parameters is discussed, and its calculation procedure is given. It was verified by recalculations and improvements of the published results, showing its effectiveness and rationality. Application to water-saving society evaluation for Tianjin shows that it can produce a better distribution of evaluation value and overcome the shortcomings, and that its results agree with the actual progress in water-saving of Tianjin.