基于BN-CPM的工程活动相关性分析

Analysis of correlation between engineering activities based on BN-CPM

在资源一定的条件下,工程活动之间会因同时受到同一风险因素影响而相互关联,即工程活动之间存在一定的相关性。现有工程进度风险分析方法多忽略考虑工程活动因同一风险因素影响而产生的相关性,这在一定程度上影响了工程进度风险分析的准确性。文章将贝叶斯网络与工程进度计划网络图相结合,建立BN-CPM模型,并完成了计算机实现。该模型利用贝叶斯网络图示及概率推理的功能既可以表达工程活动间的施工逻辑关系又可以分析工程活动间的相关性。

Correlations exist among engineering activities under limited resources and risks, as the related activities can be simultaneously influenced by and correlated via the same risk factors. Such correlations are ignored in most of the existing risk analysis of projects. This paper develops a new approach, a BN-CPM model that integrates project network with Bayesian network for calculation of correlation analysis. A Python code and GeNie 2.0 are adopted to implement BN-CPM.