用时间序列法进行电力系统短期负荷预测

Using Time Series Method for Electric Power System Short-term Load Forecasting

电力系统负荷预测是指从电力负荷自身的变化情况以及经济、气象等因素的影响规律出发,通过对历史数据的分析和研究,探索事物之间的内在联系和发展变化规律,以未来的经济、气象等因素的发展趋势为依据,对电力需求作出预先的估计和推测。本文通过使用经典的时间序列法进行短期负荷预测,以C++语言程序为计算手段,并将预测结果与实际值进行比较分析。同时类比其他各种预测的方法,对短期负荷预测的方法、过程、意义进行一些分析。

Power system load forecasting refers to the change from power load itself and meteorological factors such as the economic and the influence law of historical data, based on the analysis and research, and to explore the internal relations between development and variation in the future, the economy, the development trend of the meteorological factors such as the basis, the demand for power to advance estimate and speculation. Through using the method of time sequence on short-term load forecasting, with the c ＋ ＋ language program for calculation method, and the forecast results and the practical value of comparison and analysis. While other forecasting methods of analogy, short-term load forecasting method, process and significance of some analysis.