武广高速铁路对客运通道综合交通结构影响研究

Research on Influence of Wuhan-Guangzhou High-speed Railway on Comprehensive Traffic Structure of Passenger Transport Corridor

借鉴有关研究成果,分析武广高速铁路开通后客运通道内交通结构变化,以Logit分担率模型为基础,结合相关调研数据,建立高速铁路对客运通道综合交通结构影响的系统动力学模型,应用系统动力学Vensim软件进行仿真,得到客运通道中不同交通方式的客运分担率、客运量的发展趋势。研究结论表明,经济发展是综合交通结构演化的动力,人民生活水平提高是高速铁路新增诱发客运量的主要来源,武广高速铁路客运量及客运分担率将稳步上升;既有铁路客运量将保持一定规模,呈稳定发展态势,其分担率呈下降趋势;航空客运逐步分担率趋于稳定。

By referring relative research results, this paper analyzes the traffic structure change of passenger transport corridor after opening of Wuhan-Guangzhou high-speed railway. Based on Logit sharing rate mode and combined with relative research data, the system dynamics model for influence of comprehensive traffic structure of high-speed railway on passenger transport corridor is established. Through evaluating by using system dynamics Vensim software, the development trend of passenger transport sharing rate and passenger traffic volume in different way of passenger transport corridor are achieved. The research result shows economic development is the power of change of comprehensive traffic structure, increase of people＇s living level is the main resource of new increased passenger traffic volume in high-speed railway, and the passenger traffic volume and the transport sharing rate of Wuhan-Guangzhou railway will highly increased; the passenger traffic volume of existing railways will consist certain scale and steadily develop, while its sharing rate shows downtrend; the passenger transport shadng rate of air transportation shows stable.