长江流域洪水分期规律对水库优化蓄水运用方式的科学支撑作用

Division of Flood Seasonal Phases for Yangtze River Basin and Its Scientific Supporting Role in the Optimization of Reservoir Impoundment Process

针对长江流域大型水利工程汛末防洪和蓄水间的矛盾,根据流域汛期洪水资料和环流形势等天气资料,分析了流域洪水与西太平洋副热带高压位置间的关系,在此基础上采用数理统计等方法分析了汛期洪水的分期特性,并重点分析了三峡和瀑布沟水库汛期洪水的分期特点。分析表明,三峡和瀑布沟汛期洪水存在较为明显主汛与后汛之分,分期时间在8月20日左右。分析结果为三峡和瀑布沟水库分析分期设计洪水、优化汛末蓄水调度方式等提供了良好的科学支撑。

Focus on the conflict between flood control and reservoir impoundment at later flood season in the Yangtze River Basin, the relationship between flood seasonal change and atmospheric circulation was analyzed based on the flood and its corresponding atmospheric circulation data. On the basis of this, analysis of the flood season staging was made through mathematical statistics method and the division of flood seasonal phases at TYG and Pubugou Reservoir was studied. The result shows that the flood at TI＇G and Pubugou Reservoir before the August 20th is obviously different from the flood occurred after the August 20th. There is clear difference between main flood season and later flood season at the time of the August 20th. The research supports for the seasonal design flood estimation and the optimization of reservoir impoundment process.