基于加权马尔可夫模型的济南市降水丰枯状况预测研究

Research on Precipitation Forecasting Based on Weighted Markov Model for Jinan City

降水量是随机变量,降水过程存在着很大的不确定性和随机性。利用加权马尔可夫模型对济南市2006与2007年的降水进行预测,2006年预测状态为3,属于平水年,2007年预测状态为4,属于偏丰年份,均与实际值相符。该方法的预测结果由点值扩大到区间,提高了预测的可靠性,可结合定量预测方法进一步研究。

The precipitation is a series of random variables and there are great uncertainty and randomness in the process. This paper introduced the weighted Markov model to forecast the precipitation in Jinan City in 2006 and 2007. The results show that the forecast states of 2006 and 2007 are 3 and 4 respectively, which is consistent with the reality. The method can expand the results from point values to the prediction intervals, and the reliability is dependable.