气候变化对大凌河流域径流影响研究

Impact of Climate Change on Runoff in Dalinghe River Basin

利用区域气候模型PRECIS RCM模拟结果分析了研究流域未来温室气体在A2排放模式下规划水平年气候变化情况。将PRECIS模型模拟降水、蒸散发数据输入水文降雨径流NAM模型中,分析未来气候变化对研究流域径流影响。分析结果表明,未来气候变化条件下,受降水、蒸发变化影响,大凌河流域径流量会显著增加。

The results from the local climate model PRECIS were used to give an indication of the likely climate response in the study basin at planning horizons under two scenarios （A2 and B2） of future greenhouse gas emissions. These data of daily precipi- tation, potential evaporation derived from PRECIS model were in turn used as inputs to deterministic hydrological rainfall-runoff model （NAM）, through which the impacts of future climate change on runoff could be assessed. The indications are that there will be significantly increased runoff in the Dalinghe River Basin due to the changes of precipitation and evaporation in future, which will be impacted by climate change,