中长期消费信贷的影响因素及发展路径——基于安徽省城镇居民调查的多分类Logistic回归模型分析

On Influence Factors and Development Paths of Medium and Long-term Consumer Credit——Multinomial Logistic Regression of Anhui's Urban Residents Survey

中长期消费信贷是消费信贷的重要组成部分,但在信贷约束和收入支出不确定性的条件下,消费者往往容易产生短视行为,出现"消费的过度敏感性",从而对中长期消费信贷形成制约。在安徽省城镇居民消费信贷调查的基础上,构建多分类Logistic回归模型,分析城镇居民中长期消费信贷的影响因素。结果表明,年龄、职业类型、五年期以上贷款利率等变量的显著性水平均为10%,具有统计学意义,而文化程度、婚姻状况、月供/月消费没有统计学意义,城镇居民愿意选择中长期消费信贷的概率为66.8%,预测正确率为95.1%,并提出发展中长期消费信贷的路径。

As an important part of consumer credit,medium and long-term consumer credit is restricted because of consumers＇ short-sighted behavior and ＂excess sensitivity of consumption＂ under the conditions of credit constraints and income uncertainty.The paper constructs a Logistic regression model to analyze the influence factors of urban residents＇ medium and long-term consumer credit.The results shows that age,type of occupation,more than five-year lending rate are statistically significant in the sample significance level of 10%,while education level,marital status,monthly supply/consumption not.It also shows that the probability of urban residents＇ medium and long-term consumer credit willing is 66.8% and the correct prediction rate is 95.1%.Above all,the paper proposes a series of development paths of medium and long-term consumer credit.