人民币汇率变动对中国贸易收支影响的分析

Analysis about the influences of RMB exchange rate to china's trade balance

随着2001年12月11日中国成为WTO的第143个正式成员,中国的对外开放程度进一步加深,使得我国面临着各种机遇和挑战。经济的开放促使我国对外贸易量不断加大,贸易额不断攀升。人民币汇率作为国际贸易的重要因素,其变动对我国贸易收支产生巨大影响。本文通过对我国进出口贸易发展现状和人民币汇率的现状的相关性的分析,探寻人民币汇率变动对中国贸易收支的影响。分析结果表明人民币汇率对某外币上升会导致中国对持有该货币的国家或地区的贸易收支减少,人民币汇率对某外币汇率下降会导致中国对持有该货币的国家或地区的贸易收支增加。在以上研究成果的基础上,分析出人民币汇率变动对中国贸易收支影响的利弊,从而提出加强人民币汇率调控的政策建议。

As china had became the 143 members of WTO on December 11th 2001,China＇s opening up had further exacerbated,It makes our country face with various opportunities and challenges.It also makes our foreign trade increased,rising amount of this trade.As the important factor in international trade,RMB exchange rate＇s movement of our trade balance will have a great influence.In this paper,we pay attention to the situation of dependency analysis import and export trade and the RMB exchange rate,in order to find the RMB exchange rate how to influence china＇s trade balance.The results show that ：the RMB exchange rate against a rise in foreign currency will lead to China＇ s holding of the currency of the country or region to reduce the trade balance,RMB exchange rate against a foreign currency will lead to under China＇s holding of the currency of the country or region to increase trade balance.Finally,on the basis of the above,though to the analysis of the RMB exchange rate changes in china＇s trade balance the advantages and disadvantages,and thus proposed policy recommendations to strengthen the regulation of the RMB exchange rate.