震区公路崩塌危险度评价模型研究

Research on collapse risk evaluation model for highway in earthquake zones

以"5.12"地震重灾县———青川县(青川生命线道路沿线)作为研究区域,选取产生崩塌及影响其稳定性的9个因素为评价因子,将崩塌危险度分为无危险、低度危险、中度危险和高度危险4个等级,建立了基于改进灰色聚类法的崩塌危险度评价模型。应用该模型对青川生命线道路沿线崩塌灾害点进行评价,将此评价结果与经典灰色聚类法所得的评价结果进行对比。研究结果表明,基于改进灰色聚类法的崩塌危险度评价模型所得的评价结果比经典灰色聚类法所得的评级结果更接近于现场专家勘查结果。由此可见,采用这种基于改进灰色聚类法的评价模型对崩塌危险度进行快速、科学、有效地评价是切实可行的。

We take Qingchuan county（Qingchuan Line-road）— a hard hit area in the ＂5.12＂ Earthquake as the research area.Nine elements that contribute the collapse and affect its stability have been selected as evaluation factors.The collapse risk levels have been divided into four levels as non-hazardous,low dangerous,moderate risk and high risk.The evaluation model of highway collapse risk based on the improved grey clustering method has been established.By applying this model,we evaluate the geological disaster area along Qingchuan line-road.With the comparison between this evaluation results and the classical grey clustering method,we can see that the results got from improved grey clustering model to evaluate the collapse are much closer to experts’s site investigation findings than classical grey clustering method.Therefore,it is practical and feasible to have a quick,scientific and efficient evaluation for the collapse risk by using this improved grey clustering evaluation model.