青岛气温与全球海表温度的相关分析

Correlation Analysis of Qingdao Temperature and Global Sea Surface Temperature

利用奇异谱算法对国家160站气象资料中的青岛气温数据和ERSST海表温度资料进行了分析,研究了青岛气温的发展趋势和周期性变化规律,并对未来青岛市气温进行了预测,预测结果与原观测数据接近(相关度接近0.95)。同时也研究了青岛气温异常和全球海表温度的相关性,研究表明:青岛气温异常与全球海表温度异常部分地区存在超过0.79的相关性,其中最大正滑动相关系数位于9月份8N、49W点,并且青岛气温异常存在4个单位的滞后时间。

The author used Qingdao temperature data and ERSST data to analyze the trend and cyclical changes of Qingdao temperature anomalies with SVD and to predict.Forecasting results and the original observation data were very close(correlation close to 0.95),which indicated that this method was effective.At the same time,the author analyzed the correlation of Qingdao temperature anomalies and global SST anomalies.Researches show that Qingdao temperature anomalies and global SST anomalies have a correlation coefficient which is close 0.79,the maximum correlation coefficient appear at 8N,49W in September,and Qingdao temperature anomalies have a lag time of 4 months.