摘要
近年来,在技术预见分析与技术路线图构建的过程中,情景分析法的应用日益普及。作为应对不确定性的重要手段,情景分析法有着自身的规律及理论方法体系,深入研究情景分析法在技术经济中的应用,有利于丰富技术经济分析手段,提升技术预测的质量。本文在分析情景分析法与技术预见关系,以及介绍定性与定量情景分析方法的基础上,重点研究了基于情景分析法的技术预见分析与技术路线图制定方法。
In recent years,in the process of technology foresight analysis and technology roadmap drafting,the application of scenario analysis method is growing popularity.As an important means to cope uncertainty,the scenario analysis method has its own laws and theory system.In-depth study the application of scenario analysis in the technical economic,is conducive to enrich the technical economic analysis tools,and improves the quality of technology forecasting.This paper uses comparative and theoretical analysis study method,focusing on the technology foresight analysis and technology roadmap drafting method based on scenario analysis,analysis the relation of scenario analysis with technical foresight,and introduction of the qualitative and quantitative scenario analysis method.
出处
《工业技术经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2012年第10期6-12,共7页
Journal of Industrial Technological Economics
基金
国家社科基金"情景分析理论与方法"(项目批准号:11FGL003)后期资助
关键词
情景分析方法
技术预测
技术预见
技术路线图
scenario analysis
technology forecasting
technology foresight
technology roadmap
