长春市现代服务业现状及发展趋势分析

Analysis of the Current Situation and Development Trend to Modern Service Industry of Changchun City

现代服务业的发达程度是社会现代化水平的重要标志。从近年数据看,长春市现代服务业总量增长1倍;现代服务业和传统服务业比重平分秋色。现代服务业占GDP比重保持在1/5上下浮动。按照笔者预测,长春市未来现代服务业增加值占服务业增加值的比重将持续下降。未来长春市现代服务业比重最大的4个行业的发展态势为:最被看好的是教育业,其发展将持续上升;最有发展潜力的是租赁和商务服务业;变化中发展的是金融业,虽然其发展态势有降有升,但最近呈上升态势;最让人担忧的是信息传输、计算机服务、软件业,下降的速度过快。

The degree of development of modern service industry is an important symbol for the level of modernization. From the study of the data in recent years, the modern service industry of Changchun is doubled ; the proportion of modern service industry and the traditional service industry looks like fairly even. The ratio of modern service industry in overall GDP is about 1/5. According to the author＇s prediction, the proportion of the increased value of modern service industry to the overall serv- ice industry has a sustained downward trend. In the future, the trends of the development of modern service industry to the lar- gest four industries in Changchun are ~as follows： the most promising is that in education, whose development will continue to rise; the most potential is that in the leasing and business service industry; the trend to the financial industry is always in the shape of waves, however the recent development trend is going upward; the most alarming is the industry in information trans- mission, computer services and software, which is falling too fast.