近期银行间市场隔夜拆借利率波动的原因分析

A study on interbank overnight offered rate recent fluctuations

2011年以来，银行间市场隔夜拆借利率波动明显增强。尤其在月末与次月初表现得更为明显。这反映了银行流动性趋紧、货币调控“边际效应”增强的影响，也与存款“冲时点”有一定关联，从而使央行流动性调节与管理面临新的挑战。为此，有必要进一步加强对银行体系流动性走势的预测分析，研究改进商业银行流动性考核方式，使银行体系流动性保持在合理水平。

Since 2011, the interbank overnight offered rate has become more volatile notably, especially at the beginning and the end of the month. This demonstrates that the liquidity in the banking system is turning tighter and the marginal effect of the reserve requirement ratio adjustment is increasing, which is associated with the deposit ＂last minute charge＂ activities to a certain extent and gives rise to new challenges to the central bank＇s liquidity adjustment and management. In this regard, it is necessary to pay more attention to predicting the banking system＇s liquidity trend and examine how to improve commercial banks＇ liquidity assessment in order to maintain the banking system＇s liquidity at an appropriate level.