关于当前人民币有效汇率合理水平的思考

An analysis on an appropriate RMB effective exchange rate

2011年下半年欧债危机恶化以来，在人民币有效汇率大幅升值的同时，欧美日等国从中国的进口增速均出现了低于其整体进口增速的现象，这表明当前中国出口不景气并不完全归因于外需不足，人民币有效汇率大幅升值至历史高位也是出口增速下滑的重要影响因素。鉴于保持出口稳定是“稳增长”的重要内容之一，文章建议应进一步增强汇率弹性，实现人民币有效汇率的基本稳定，充分发挥汇率政策工具在调节宏观经济内外均衡方面的重要作用。

After the worsening European debt crisis in Q2 2011, the growth rates of Europe, USA, and Japan＇s imports from China dropped to a lower level relative to their total imports, while RMB effective exchange rate increased sharply. The historically high level of RMB effective exchange rate was another important influential factor of China＇s export slowdown, not solely attributed by inadequate external demand. Since maintaining export stability is a key element of ＂stable growth＂, the article suggests to enhance the flexibility of exchange rate, keep fundamental stability of RMB effective exchange rate and bring FX policy measures into full play in adjusting both internal and external macro-economic equilibriums.