论转基因大豆对我国大豆产业的影响

Analysis of Development of Genetically Modified Soybean and Its Impact on China's Soybean Industry

自1996年转基因作物商业化生产以来,转基因大豆因其在成本上的优势和优良的抗性得到了迅猛发展,我国虽然是世界上惟一不种植转基因大豆的国家,却是世界上最大的转基因大豆进口国。转基因大豆对我国非转基因大豆的生产和贸易造成了严重的冲击,我国大豆的对外依存度已经达到70%以上。转基因大豆价格影响国内大豆销售价格,销售价格进一步影响农户种植意愿,在5%的显著水平下,销售价格每下降1%,大豆种植面积会下降0.4%。当前农户种植大豆的积极性下降,我国大豆的国际竞争力越来越弱。

Genetically modified （GM） soybeans have been developing rapidly because of their advantages of low cost and excellent resistance since GM crops produced commercially in 1996. China, the only country which refuses to cultivate GM soybeans, however,is the world＇s largest importer of them. GM soybeans have caused a serious im- pact on the production and trade of non-GM soybeans. The external dependence of soybeans has reached more than 70% in China. GM soybean price affects the domestic soybean prices,and the sale price further influences the farm ers＇ willingness to plant soybean. In 5% of the significant level,when the sale price drops by 1%, the soybean planting area will drop by 0.4%. Now the farmers＇ enthusiasm of planting soybeans declines, and China＇ s competi- tiveness in the international soybean market gets weaker and weaker.