基于蒙特卡罗的高速公路项目全寿命周期成本模型

Life-Cycle Cost Model Based on the Monte Carlo of the Highway Project

在分析高速公路项目全寿命周期成本构成的基础上,采用成本现值和等额成本年值指标构建了高速公路项目全寿命周期成本数学模型,并针对成本计算中的不确定性,运用蒙特卡罗方法对实例进行了模拟,验证了模型和模拟方法的实用性,为高速公路项目建设方案决策和节约成本提供了科学方法和理论依据.

On the basis of the analysis on the life-cycle cost components of highway project, cost of present value and annual value were applied as the index to establish the life-cycle cost model. For the uncertainty in the cost calculation, the method of Monte Carlo was used to simulate instance, the practicality of the model and simulation methods was verified, the scientific method and theoretical basis were provided for program decision-making and cost-saving on highway project.