武汉市伤寒、副伤寒发病率GM(1,1)灰色模型预测分析

Prediction analysis for typhoid and paratyphoid fever with GM(1,1) grey model in Wuhan

目的预测武汉市2012-2014年伤寒、副伤寒发病趋势,为制订针对性的防控措施提供依据。方法根据武汉市2000-2009年的伤寒、副伤寒发病率,应用灰色系统理论,构建GM(1,1)模型进行预测分析。结果武汉市伤寒、副伤寒发病率(1/10万)的GM(1,1)灰色模型为:y^(t+1)=-11.784 809e-0.118 065+13.994 809,拟合检验显示本模型精度好(C=0.358,P=1.000),能较好地进行趋势预测分析。结论预测提示2012-2014年武汉市伤寒、副伤寒年发病率呈下降趋势,应继续采取改善饮用水卫生,加强卫生监管,实施健康教育等综合措施控制伤寒、副伤寒的发病水平。

Objective To predict the incidence trend of typhoid and paratyphoid fever in Wuhan city,and provide reference for policy making.Methods According to the incidence data of typhoid and paratyphoid fever in Wuhan city from 2000 to 2009,the predicting model using grey system theory was established to carry out the predicting research.Results The grey model was（t＋1）=-11.784 809e-0.118 065＋13.994 809.The goodness-of-fit test indicated that the precision（degree 1） was qualified（C=0.358,P=1.000） and the model was capable in predicting the incidence of typhoid and paratyphoid fever..Conclusions The results indicate that the incidence of typhoid and paratyphoid fever will continue to decrease from 2012 to 2014,however,it is still necessary to strengthen comprehensive prevention and control measures,including： improvement of drinking water hygiene,strengthening of health monitoring and health education,so as to reduce the Incidence of typhoid and paratyphoid fever.