灰色系统GM(1,1)模型预测常州市肺结核发病趋势

Prediction of pulmonary tuberculosis incidence trend in Changzhou city with grey system model GM(1,1)

目的建立肺结核灰色预测模型GM(1,1),应用于常州市肺结核发病趋势的预测。方法根据中国疾病预防控制信息系统中2004-2011年常州市肺结核发病报告资料,建立肺结核发病率灰色预测模型GM(1,1),并对2012-2014年常州市肺结核发病率进行预测。结果建立的预测模型为x^(1)(k+1)=-944.706 5 e-0.087 40 k+1 021.734 3,经拟合检验,后验差比值C为0.222,小概率误差P为1,拟合精度为优。利用建立的模型预测常州市2012-2014年常州市肺结核发病率分别为42.881 2/10万、39.292 5/10万和36.004 1/10万。结论 GM(1,1)模型较好地拟合了常州市肺结核发病的趋势,预测结果具有参考价值。

Objective To establish the grey system model GM（1,1）for pulmonary tuberculosis and predict pulmonary tuberculosis incidence trend in Changzhou city.Methods Grey Model（1,1） was set up according to the incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis data in Changzhou city from 《China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention》 during 2004-2011,and used to predict pulmonary tuberculosis prevalence for 2012-2014.Results Predicting-model GM（1,1）was（1）（k＋1）=-944.706 5 e-0.087 40 k＋1 021.734 3.According to the result of fitting test,the fitting accuracy of the model was excellent（C=0.222,P=1）.With the established model the predictive incidence rates of pulmonary tuberculosis in Changzhou city from 2012 to 2014 were 42.8812 per hundred thousand,39.292 5 per hundred thousand and 36.004 1 per hundred thousand respectively.Conclusions The grey system model GM（1,1） is acceptable to analyze the trend of pulmonary tuberculosis in Changzhou city and the predicting results was of reference value.