美国TPP战略的动机及其对东北亚经济一体化的影响研究

Research on the Motivation of U.S.TPP Strategy and Its Impact on Regional Economic Integration in Northeast Asia

美国TPP战略既是美国外贸政策的重大调整,也是对WTO全球多边贸易秩序的系统性突破。它不仅反映了美国政府试图重振其国内脆弱经济的努力,同时也标志着美国亚太经济合作战略的重大转变。本文运用一般均衡模型,模拟了不同情境下美国TPP战略对不同地区产生的各种经济影响。模拟结果显示:TPP加入国家福利增加,而非加入国将受损,一个不包括中国的TPP将使得中国福利受损,贸易条件恶化。中国需要迅速建立包含中日韩三国的东北亚自由贸易区,同时应根据自己的长远利益构建针对美国TPP战略的其他对冲性政策。

TPP strategy, which is a significant adjustment for American foreign trade policy, is trying to break through the multilateral trading system of WTO. It not only reflects the efforts of revitalizing domestic fragile economy, but also marks a sharp shift of American Asia - Pacific economic cooperation strategy. In this paper, by using CGE model, we simulate the impact of TPP strategy under different scenarios on the regional economic variables. Simulation results reveal that the welfare of entrants in TPP would increase, while the countries not in TPP would suffer from welfare loss. A TPP excluding China would damage China＇s welfare and worsen terms of trade. China should quickly react to establish an FTA in Northeast Asia including China, Republic of Korea and Japan. Some relevant hedging policies against U.S. TPP strategy should also be implemented according to China＇s long - run interests.