浙江经济发展奇迹及其原因探索

What Drove the Miracle of Miracles—Zhejiang's Economic Development?

中国经济以年均近10%的速度持续30年增长,成为世界经济发展史上的奇迹,浙江省经济年均增长13%,高速持续30年,堪称"奇迹之奇迹"。究其原因,有独特的近海区位优势和重商重创新的地域文化,更有体制转型变革的巨大驱动。利用1978—2009年时间序列进行多因素回归,结果显示,不同时段浙江全要素生产率的来源在发生变化,内生效率改善的因素在上升。1978—2009年,人力资本对浙江GDP正向影响最大,固定资本次之,工业化第三;1978—1994年固定资本对其正向影响最大,人力资本次之,外贸依存度第三;1995—2009年城市化对其正向影响最大,人力资本次之,工业化第三,外贸依存度呈现负向影响。最后,提出浙江经济十二五规划时期高速持续发展的对策。

China became the economic miracle of the world, with its annual growth rate of about 10% over the past three decades. Zhejiang＇ s economic development could be called ＂the miracle of miracles,＂ with its annual growth rate of 13% over the same period. There are various factors that contributed to this economic miracle. Its economic system converted from a government-planned only economy to a diversified market economy, dominated by private companies since 1978. It has coastal advantages and a unique business-oriented and an innovative regional culture. This paper analyses the time series during the period of 1978-2009. The multiple regression results show that the elements of total factor productivity （TFP） have changed and technology growth and endogenous efficiency were improving. Human capital, the total investment of assets, and industrialization had significant and positive effects on the growth of GDP in Zhejiang. Human capital had the largest effect, while the total investment of assets was the second and industrialization the third. During the period of 1978-1994, the total investment of assets had a positive and most significant effect on the growth of GDP in Zhejiang, while human capital had a positive, and the second most significant effect, and the dependence on foreign trade had a positive, and the third most significant effect. During the period of 1995-2009, urbanization played a positive and most significant role, whereas the human capital was the second, and industrialization was the third most important factor. Dependence on foreign trades had a surprisingly negative significant impact. Finally, this paper proposes new strategies and policy suggestions to sustain Zhejiang＇ s high-speed economic development in the 12th five-year plan.