危机事件对张家界旅游影响评价——基于本底线模型的高分辨率分析

An Assessment on Influences of Crises on Zhangjiajie Tourism: Analysis Based on the Tourism Background Trend Line in High Time Resolution

根据张家界2001—2011年旅游统计数据,建立入境旅游客流量及旅游外汇收入、国内旅游客流量及旅游收入四条本底趋势线,引入月指数的概念,基于本底线模型的高分辨率分析危机事件对张家界旅游的影响。研究表明,旅游业既是一个敏感性产业,又是一个自我恢复力强的产业,在危机之后往往能强力反弹,旅游本底趋势线作为旅游业发展的生命线,始终能够把危机形成的凹型谷吸引回来。研究认为,张家界作为国内外知名品牌景区,具有抗周期性和后危机反弹的特征,尤其是国内旅游具有更强的抗周期性和后危机反弹能力,而入境旅游相对更脆弱。此外,作为国际性危机事件,"SARS"和"国际金融危机"对张家界旅游影响较大,周期较长;而"自然灾害"对张家界旅游影响相对较小。研究成果为张家界建立危机预警系统和管理体制提供了科学依据。

Using the statistics data of Zhangjiajie tourism from 200l to 2011, the four background trend lines of inbound and domestic tourist arrivals and tourism income were found on the basis of the theory of natural trend curve. This paper analyzes the influences of crises on Zhangjiajie inbound and domestic tourism by using monthly index on the tourism background trend line in high time resolution. The results show that the tourism industry is a sensitive and powerful self recovery ability industry. The tourism industry can always quick rebound on the heels of the crisis. In the end the tourism background trend line always pulled concave vale back, as the lifeline of tourism development. The results implied that Zhangjiajie has an obvious anti periodicity effect and rebound feature on the heels of crisis, science it has become well-known at home and abroad as a tourist destination. With the rapid economical development, domestic tourism has strong ascending inertia and rebound ability on the heels of crisis, but inbound tourism is more vulnerable. As international crisis, ＂SARS＂ and ＂international financial crisis＂ have great influence on Zhangjiajie tourism, and they have a long cycle. However, ＂Natural disaster＂ has slight effect on the Zhangjiajie tourism. The study provided a scientific basis for establishing crisis advance warning system and management system.