解体抑或持存:内在视角下家庭未来预测发生机制的实证分析

Disintegration or Insistence:An Empirical Study on the Generative Mechanism of Future Prediction of Family Under an Inside Approach——Based on a Survey of 518 Urban-Rural Residents of Baoding

运用预测心理学的"内在视角"分析城乡居民家庭预测的发生机制问题在当前家庭研究中是创新性的、极有价值的。本项研究采用Logistic统计分析模型,对河北省保定市518个居民的调查数据进行分析,结果表明本文提出的家庭预测理论模型可以被我们所接受。结论是,人们的家庭规范团结感、功能团结感、不满意感和失范感四个心理知觉变量对家庭未来预测的不同结果具有显著性影响,而情感团结感成为被忽略的因素。文章最后对这些发现的启示性涵义做了进一步讨论。

It is creative and plausible to analyze the generative mechanism of prediction of family under the inside approach in the psychology of prediction.Using the survey data of 518 adults,Baoding Hebei,a Logistic model is constructed,and the overall model of family prediction fits the data effectively and can be accepted.The psychological perceptions of normative solidarity,functional solidarity,dissatisfaction and anomie are significantly related with the family prediction outcomes,yet affective perception being neglected.In the last part,the author discusses the revelatory implications of these findings further.